Summary:

This qualitative study seeks to examine the following problem: “Is the Skjold-class a costeffective solution to new tasks?” The problem is analysed through Graham Allison’s three organizational decision making models through the following hypothesises:

Model 1: Rational Actor
The Skjold class is the most cost-effective answer to the changes in national security threats.

Model 2: The Organizational Process
An important factor behind the Skjold decision is that the military organization has a tendency to replace existing units, after 30-40 years, with new ones of the basically same type.

Model 3: The Organizational Process
The FPBs were sure winners because they were to be constructed in Norway

The data used in this study, was collected through interviews and document studies. To present a broader understanding to the reader, the events occurring before the decision are listed chronologically.

Hypothesis 1 was found to have low explanatory effect on the decision. The Norwegian national assembly chose to neglect Chief of Defence General Frisvold’s recommendation to remove the Fast Patrol Boats (FPB) from the Navy. Nor were there any alternatives evaluated at the same time. For many of the new tasks described for the vessel, other existing units can do them better. And finally, short time before the decision, the minister of defence was warned by her own department about the procurement. The Skjold class was therefore not a cost-effective answer to
the changes in national security.

The second hypothesis found support in the data collected to this study. A clear tendency was discovered, that units are replaced with new ones of the basically the same type. The only exception found to this was the restructuring of the coast artillery. A prototype of the Skjold-class was built and tested and money spent. Several of the respondents indicated that the sunk cost argument influenced the decision.

Finally the third hypothesis also found support among the respondents. When you have a minority government, the national assembly is more open to be influenced by lobbyism. The Navy, the industry and regional politics were mentioned by the political respondents to have influenced the decision. The answer to the problem of this study is therefore that the Skjold-class is not a cost-effective solution to new tasks